Why this week should clarify (a bit) the political situation in France

France may not know its next prime minister yet but the situation could – in theory – be clearer by the end of the week.

The dust has settled from the second round of the legislative elections held on July 7, which left a fractious Assemblée nationale with no party or alliance with an absolute majority and thus no clear leader. 

President Macron is widely expected to accept the resignation of current prime minister Gabriel Attal this Tuesday (July 16), thus creating the chance for him to appoint a new one when the time comes.

The president also announced this morning that he will organise a meeting with close political allies on Monday (July 15), although it is unsure what will be discussed.

Various groups are still looking to form a governing coalition, but as of today (July 15), there is no clear idea of who the next prime minister will be - nor the candidate’s political affiliation.

However, the lower political chamber will reconvene with its new MPs on Thursday (July 18), where amongst its first tasks is the appointment of a new president of the house (a role similar to the speaker in the UK House of Commons). 

To be elected president of the chamber, a candidate (usually) needs a majority of MPs to vote them into the role – 289 or more of 577. 

There are two rounds of voting via secret ballot but if no individual receives enough votes, it goes to a third round where the candidate with the most votes wins.

The last president, Yaël Braun-Pivet from president Macron’s centrist group, was reelected to the Assembée nationale, and depending on how the vote goes may be reelected as president, as she will be the group's candidate for the role once again.

Read more: ‘France is ungovernable’: what experts say about election results

Why will a new president of the chamber clarify the political situation? 

Whilst the election of the president of the Assemblée nationale does not have the same gravitas as for the prime minister, the voting patterns of parties will likely mimic expected coalitions and power blocs within the new chamber. 

If the situation remains as it is now, the candidate of the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) will get the most votes – as it is the largest single bloc. 

However, if the right-wing Les Républicains party is planning to back President Macron’s centrist group as part of a new coalition – making this alliance the largest group in the chamber and thus in a position of force for the next government – it is likely to back a centrist candidate for the role, showing its future intent. 

Read more: GRAPH: See seats by party in new French parliament

It may also be the case that less radical groups from the NFP vote for a president from the centre if they are looking to jump ship from the left-wing alliance to join a broader so-called ‘Republican’ coalition in the centre of the chamber. 

When will the leftist coalition name its prime ministerial candidate?

The NFP still have not picked a candidate for the prime ministerial role after a weekend of back-and-forth amongst the parties within it over the potential nomination of Huguette Bello, president of Réunion island, for the role. 

She has since withdrawn after the Socialist Party vetoed her as a candidate, leaving the group back at square one. 

Leader of the Socialist Party Olivier Faure said that the group should have a candidate in place by the time the Assemblée nationale convenes on Thursday. 

However, on Monday afternoon, the far-left La France Insoumise announced they had temporarily 'suspended' discussions over a prime ministerial appointment from within the group. 

The group, the largest in the NFP, cited a 'blockage' from the Socialist Party, who it accused of constantly shooting down its proposed candidates.

If President Macron accepts the resignation of Gabriel Attal, he and his cabinet will remain on as a gouvernement démissionnaire or resigning government, until a new prime minister is chosen.

Read more: Macron letter to French people sets out terms to name new prime minister

This will allow them to continue to oversee the country during the 2024 Olympic Games, whilst remaining safe from any motion of no confidence which could topple the centrists (these cannot be levied against a resigning government). 

Any new prime minister, whoever they are, is not likely to start their tenure until the Games are over.