France’s 2025 budget will ‘probably’ be forced through without vote, says PM

France’s prime minister says he will ‘probably’ pass the 2025 budget via article 49.3, bypassing a vote on the controversial bill. 

Michel Barnier made the comments in response to MPs overwhelmingly rejecting the first part of the draft finance bill for 2025 by 362 votes to 192 earlier this week.

Centrist, right, and far-right MPs all voted against this section, which saw various amendments added to it from left-wing or far-right MPs. 

This includes changes such as capital gains taxes on some main home sales, and some of the taxation proposals considered in the original budget.

Read more: Some main homes in France targeted for capital gains tax under new plan

“Of course we'll have a budget for 2025, that's the goal,” said Mr Barnier to media outlet Ouest-France. 

“It will be a serious and responsible budget, and not one that has been distorted, as it has been in the Assembly.” 

A vote on the overall budget will be held by French MPs next Tuesday (November 19) and is also likely to be rejected.

It will pass to the Senate before being shuttled between the two chambers until just before Christmas in the hope of the bill passing via a vote. 

During this time, the bill may be altered further. 

However, with MPs from across the spectrum unlikely to agree and vote the budget through – regardless of changes made to the bill in the coming weeks – the government’s sole recourse to have a budget in place next year is to use the divisive article 49.3. 

The budget must be passed before December 31 to come into effect for the coming year.

What is article 49.3?

Heavily employed by president Emmanuel Macron during previous budgetary debates – and to pass pension reforms – article 49.3 allows certain bills to bypass a vote in parliament.

These are usually financial bills relating to government stability, such as annual budgets. 

Read more: Explainer: what is France’s article 49.3 and why is it in the news?

When a government uses the bill however, they immediately open themselves up to a motion of no confidence.

Read more: Explained: What is a motion de censure in French politics?

The current government Mr Barnier controls is already a minority one, meaning there is a risk of opponents uniting to vote him out. 

The prime minister seems unfazed by such a risk, however. 

“When I see what has happened in the Assembly, I find it difficult to do otherwise at the end of the discussion [except use article 49.3].”

“But you will note that we have chosen to let the debate take place there,” he said, as opposed to immediately passing the original version of the text without passing it through the two chambers.

For the Barnier government to lose the vote of no confidence, the left-wing parties and far-right Rassemblement National would need to unite, and despite the latter’s rejection of the bill, they have not yet indicated they would vote to topple the government. 

Politicians of the group said when Mr Barnier was appointed they would not vote against him in such a manner until he had time to prove how his cabinet would govern. 

Read more: Marine Le Pen: ‘We expect Michel Barnier to act’